~Summer Around the Pacific Northwest~
RED FLAG WARNINGS have been extended through early Sunday for parts of our forecast area * Click here for all the latest information.......
Exclusive Inland NW Summary Issued: Saturday, September 5, 2026 @ 8:45pm
WRITTEN BY: Climatologist Bob Lutz
(Summaries are issued as needed and will be updated more frequently during times of active weather)
SHORT-TERM FORECAST
A storm system will continue to slowly migrate across the Northwest through the remainder of the holiday weekend. Forecast confidence regarding the exact track of each wave of moisture associated with the storm remains low, so expect changes to the precipitation side of the forecasts. Even so, models have remained rather consistent in forecasting the next chance of more widespread precipitation for later Sunday into Labor Day but have wavered on rainfall totals. It does appear that most of the region will see some degree of measurable rain before it is all said and done on Tuesday. Some scattered thunderstorm activity is also possible at times as well.
LONG-TERM FORECAST
Models are not showing signs of any large, blocking high pressure ridges, so the pattern will likely remain somewhat active at times; however, much of the new workweek itself will feature a decrease in showers and temperatures that will temporarily moderate. Then by the end of the week, the remnants of a tropical system will begin to move toward the Northwest. This should result in cooler temperatures along with a renewed chance of showers once again. In summary, it looks like the wet season is making an early appearance, and it's certainly a much welcomed change considering the brutal wildfire season we all just experienced!
SPECIAL WINTER OUTLOOK COMMENTARY
The forecast of a "super El Nino" already has a few of our local meterologists pulling the trigger on predicting yet another dry winter, but I have to say that I strongly disagree with making such a prediction this early on! I have been watching this equatorial Pacific phenomenon for over 40 years, and quite frankly, I have seen some El Nino winters come with much better precipitation than many of our recent La Niña events, which are "supposed" to be cold and wet. Prime examples are what happened last year AND the winter before. The basis of my disagreement is that there are many other weather phenomena that interconnect to form our weather patterns here in the Northwest. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) certainly have more of an effect on the outcome of our Northwest winters than the stand-alone monitoring of the water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. Add in the unpredictability of the Arctic Oscillation (which can change course in just a matter of days) and you can clearly see why making a prediction this far out is a bit premature! So in summary, don't hang up those skis or sell the winter gear quite yet, as there is certainly much more to monitor in the weeks ahead!
General Short-Term Model Agreement: GOOD
General Long-Term Model Agreement: GOOD
Our hearts and prayers continue to go out to all those affected by the historic Northwest wildfires. The long-term recovery process is now underway, and it's never too late to help. Please consider making a charitable donation by clicking on the icon below. With Innovia, your donation stays local, and they have much lower overhead which means more of your money goes to the fire victims...
