~Summer Around the Pacific Northwest~
RED FLAG WARNINGS have been extended through early Sunday for parts of our forecast area * Click here for all the latest information.......
Exclusive Inland NW Summary Issued: Friday, September 4, 2026 @ 10:00pm
WRITTEN BY: Climatologist Bob Lutz
(Summaries are issued as needed and will be updated more frequently during times of active weather)
SHORT-TERM FORECAST
A storm just offshore will slowly continue to move inland and spin additional systems into the Inland Northwest. Forecast confidence regarding the exact track of each individual disturbance remains low, so expect changes to the precipitation side of the forecasts through the entire holiday weekend. The highest chances of precipitation will be late Saturday afternoon, and again later Sunday into Labor Day Monday. There is much higher confidence that temperatures as a whole will remain cooler than average. With the colder air mass aloft, instability will result in some scattered thunderstorm activity, especially during the afternoon hours. Some localized storms could contain heavy rain, small hail, and gusty winds.
LONG-TERM FORECAST
Models are not showing any signs of large, blocking high pressure ridges, so the pattern will likely remain somewhat active at times. Showers will be on the decrease moving toward midweek and temperatures will moderate as well. Then by the end of the week, additional disturbances will begin to pass close to the Northwest again. This will result in cooler temperatures along with the chance of scattered showers in places.
SPECIAL WINTER OUTLOOK COMMENTARY
The forecast of a "super El Nino" already has a few of our local meterologists pulling the trigger on predicting yet another dry winter, but I have to say that I strongly disagree with making such a prediction this early on! I have been watching this equatorial Pacific phenomenon for over 40 years, and quite frankly, I have seen some El Nino winters come with much better precipitation than many of our recent La Niña events, which are "supposed" to be cold and wet. Prime examples are what happened last year AND the winter before. The basis of my disagreement is that there are many other weather phenomena that interconnect to form our weather patterns here in the Northwest. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) certainly have more of an effect on the outcome of our Northwest winters than the stand-alone monitoring of the water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. Add in the unpredictability of the Arctic Oscillation (which can change course in just a matter of days) and you can clearly see why making a prediction this far out is a bit premature! So in summary, don't hang up those skis or sell the winter gear quite yet, as there is certainly much more to monitor in the weeks ahead!
General Short-Term Model Agreement: GOOD
General Long-Term Model Agreement: FAIR
Our hearts and prayers continue to go out to all those affected by the historic Northwest wildfires. The long-term recovery process is now underway, and it's never too late to help. Please consider making a charitable donation by clicking on the icon below. With Innovia, your donation stays local, and they have much lower overhead which means more of your money goes to the fire victims...
