Pacific Northwest Seasonal Outlooks

By Climatologist Bob Lutz

Following the hottest summer in "recorded" history around the Inland Northwest, many are left wondering what surprises winter will send our way?  Unfortunately, the answers are not as clear-cut as I would like to see.

The primary issue is a short term change in the climate cycles which have created havoc in both the global upper level air patterns and major ocean currents over the past few years.  Historically, there were clear indicators of what winter might be like here in the Northwest based solely on what was going on in the equatorial Pacific, but that is no longer the case.

In fact, the last six episodes of the El Nino and La Nina cycles produced weather patterns that were almost totally opposite of what we should have experienced.  Last season you might remember that the Cascades absorbed most of the moisture out of the Pacific storms, leaving the Inland Northwest much drier by later in the season.  No, I think Pacific Decadal Oscillation (the warming and cooling of the ocean temps in the Gulf of Alaska)  has more of a significant impact on our local weather.  And those temperatures have been steadily ratcheting upward since 2010.    

Even so, there are a couple of things that leave me slightly hopeful that we will experience a wetter than normal winter, including some indicators that the waters off the NW coast will cool in the weeks ahead.  How much they cool will be critical, and I'll get more into that next. That cooling (if occurs)  combined with a developing La Nina pattern should increase the storminess over eastern Pacific.  In fact, we are seeing a little evidence of that already.

 If the waters over the eastern Pacific fail to cool, then periods of blocking high pressure will likely be the result.  Those highs typically split the storm track around the Northwest, and each occurrence has been historically known to last for two weeks or more.  During our already too short wet season, this is obviously of significant concern. 

 It's interesting that the latest forecast from the Climate Prediction Center is also slightly favoring a wetter than normal pattern, especially beyond December.  Even so, they, along with many other climate experts of late caution that precipitation totals may fall short of fully ending the local drought conditions.   

The other area of concern is the seasonal phasing of the Subtropical and Polar storm tracks.  During a normal winter (if there is such a thing anymore) the Subtropical storm track phases with the Polar storm track in various places around the globe.  This feeds the Polar storm track, (which is most present in the Northwest during winter)  heavier amounts of water vapor.  This in turn results in stronger, wetter storms.  The failure of this very phenomenon over the Pacific late last winter is what started our historic drought.      

Temperature patterns are even more uncertain.  If the storm tracks are able to maintain a direct flow into the Pacific Northwest, then we'll be wetter, but not necessarily colder.  The reason is that the storm tracks will keep things progressive, and serve to bottle any Arctic air to our north.  On the flip side, any decrease in storm activity, either as a result of high pressure or the storm track wobbling around the West, could increase the chance of Arctic air spilling further south.  

In recent years, Arctic oscillation phases have also been a challenge.  They are not very predictable anymore, and sometimes the phases of these air masses change in only a matter of days, without much warning.

Our biggest snow producers here around the Inland Northwest are during those times when milder Pacific air overrides those Arctic air masses that slide into our area.  If the storm track does indeed wobble up and down the West Coast this season, then those episodes could be more likely.  

So as you can plainly see, forecasting for the longer term has now become quite complex as we head into uncharted territory related to the change in climate cycles.  A few of these patterns are simply unrecognizable to our current forecast models due to lack of historical data. 

These changes by the way are mostly the result of higher than normal global volcanic activity, along with changing sunspot activity.  This is nothing new in the some 4.5 billion years that the earth has been in existence... Just saying.      

The one thing that I do know for sure is that if we don't get that wetter winter we so desperately need, then our record drought will only worsen with the arrival of the dry season late next spring! 

In closing, you're probably saying to yourself that this is not much of a "forecast", but rather a "cause & effect" lesson.  If that's the case, then you're exactly correct.  These are the times we find ourselves in.  Quite frankly, trying to make a long range forecast anymore is nothing short of placing a bet in Vegas.   Even the all-knowing Farmers Almanac of late has missed the mark.  The best advice I can give is for you to just make it a habit of checking my daily forecasts to get all the latest, and be prepared for just about anything.   

Some minor changes have occurred to the large pool of warm water in the Gulf of Alaska and eastern Pacific.  This will lead to weather conditions that will be a bit more winter-like for the 2nd half of winter.    

Detailed Synopsis 

The big snow producing months for the lowlands here in the Inland Northwest are typically November - February, half of which are now behind us.  As I suspected, the first "half" did not produce much in the way of any significant winter weather thanks to that massive pool of warm water off the Washington coast.  Over the past few weeks, that pool has shrunk and cooled a bit, but sea surface temperatures (SST's) are still running above average.  Also of note is a significant cooling over Alaska, this after some near record warmth over the past couple of months.  All these subtle changes should lead to temperatures cooling just enough over the Northwest to give us a little more snow for the last two "snow-producing months" of the season.  Even so, snowfall averages will still likely come in below normal.  On the flip side, precipitation should continue to average near normal through the early spring months.   As for Arctic outbreaks, they are still possible, but I don't see anything that would result in a repeat of the severe late winter outbreak we experienced last February.        

2019-20 Winter Outlook * Issued September 12, 2019

Summary 

A large pool of warm water (affectionately known as the "Blob") has reemerged in the Gulf of Alaska which will likely lead to a mild, but wet early winter season, with more uncertainty in the forecast beyond January.  

Detailed Synopsis 

First for some housecleaning... Many of you no doubt noticed that I did not issue a Spring & Summer Outlook this year, and the reason is simple... In all my years of weather observations, I can't recall a time when we have seen an El Nino pattern (typically a winter phenomenon) occur during the summer months.  As such, we were in uncharted territory and as it turned out, this summer was indeed a bit strange with only short-lived heat waves, and much wetter than normal conditions in many locations. 

So fast forward to the present time with the latest ENSO update now indicating that the warm El Nino waters in the equatorial Pacific have finally returned to normal temperatures.  On the flip side, we currently have a large area of warm water being observed just off the West Coast and in the Gulf of Alaska.  It is interesting to note that this warming in the Gulf is the same exact scenario we had last fall, only this time the sea surface temperatures (SST's) there appear to be considerably warmer. In fact, this particular warming event is very similar to what transpired during the winter of 2014-15 in which snowfall here in the Northwest came in well below normal and temperatures were above average for much of the season.

All this leads me to believe that we will see at least an early winter season with milder than normal temperatures, and an active storm track which will move up and down the West Coast, sending plenty of Pacific moisture inland.   

The forecast for the latter half of winter carries with it some uncertainty, and will all depend on whether or not that pool of warmer water in the Gulf of Alaska significantly dissipates in the months ahead.  If that were to occur, it would lead to a colder second half of Winter.  Of course, there is always Arctic Oscillation which can throw a monkey wrench in everything, and typically gives little warning prior to its onset.  As such, I always recommend you monitor my Inland Northwest Summaries issued daily on my Home Page.

So in summary, expect temperatures to average above normal, with a tendency for normal to slightly above normal precipitation in the form of both rain and very wet snow in the northern valleys.  Also in this pattern, the mountains will likely experience highly fluctuating freezing levels.   I will post another update sometime in late December or January IF I see any notable changes to the ongoing patterns, so stay tuned just in case! 

2018-19 UPDATED Winter Outlook * Issued December 7, 2018

Summary 

The "Blob" has returned, and unless the sea surface temperatures (SST's) associated with it change, our overall winter weather here in the Northwest will continue to be milder than normal, with below normal snowfall.  

Detailed Synopsis 

In my original Winter Outlook issued in September, I alluded to the fact that the upcoming winter had plenty of uncertainties, and that has pretty much been the case so far this season!  I also mentioned that El Nino might not necessarily play a huge role in our weather as there are plenty of other atmospheric features with much stronger influences here in the great Northwest.  Well as it turns out, that too has verified, especially with the redevelopment of a local phenomenon called the blob.  The "Blob" (as scientists have so lovingly named it) is a huge pool of warm water in the Gulf of Alaska where SST's are well above normal.  This is mostly caused by long lasting high pressure ridges that remain nearly stationary over the same area.  That has certainly been the case since early summer this year whereas general high pressure remained anchored out over the eastern Pacific and the Gulf of Alaska.  The resulting calm conditions created an anomalously warm pool of water which in late October was twice the size of British Columbia!  Why these ridges develop in the first place is a bit of a mystery, but I suspect it has something to do with more episodes of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) which has been known to cause resilient high pressure ridges downstream over the eastern Pacific.  I also suspect that this Blob thing could be a part of a bigger phenomenon called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation which I believe first tried to switch to a warm (or positive) phase in early 2009.  In short, this is basically a longer-term warming (or cooling) of the Gulf of Alaska waters which has historically lasted between 10 and 30 years, and was first observed by Alaskan fishermen many decades ago.  

The last big blob episode here was observed in 2014-15 when SST's were running some 7 degree's Fahrenheit above normal!  During that winter, our snowfall here in the Northwest came in well below normal while the East Coast got hammered.  The blob tried to re-emerge again in 2016, but was washed away by storminess over the eastern Pacific.  This current episode is not quite as warm, with SST's running around 5 degrees Fahrenheit above normal.

 So the big question is will the blob get washed away again, or will it remain??  While I hate to sit on the fence so-to-speak, it's really a a wait and see thing.  If the warmer water does get displaced, then the later half of the season should be more winter-like.  If not, expect more of the same meaning overall milder than normal temperatures. There will still be snow at times, but it may be more of the wet variety in the valleys with averages coming in below normal when it's all said and done . You can read more about the "Blob" by clicking HERE.  In the meantime, be prepared for just about anything for the remainder of the season!

The winter forecast this year is rather complex and as such, a bit more uncertain; however, based on our recent summer pattern, I suspect that this winter will be very similar in many ways to what we saw last winter, with temperatures being the biggest wildcard.  

Detailed Synopsis 

If you noticed an uncanny similarity in the weather this past summer vs. last summer, you were not alone!  Temperatures turned out to be very similar, (if not a bit hotter at times) and precipitation was once again hard to come by.  I think this trend will play a role in our winter forecast, but more on that later... 

First, I should point out that the complexity this year stems from a number of larger scale global patterns.  In fact, many local forecasters will likely base their winter outlook around the development of another El Nino cycle which is a warming in the equatorial Pacific, but I say not so fast!  While El Nino has historically given us milder, drier winter patterns, in looking at the past 10 years of El Nino/La Nina events, it was painfully obvious that nothing went according to plan!  One can only conclude that for whatever reason, the water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific were having little influence over our patterns here in the Northwest, and that could be the case again this time around.  Instead, I think we need to watch the Madden-Julian and Arctic Oscillations more closely, along with sun spot activity.  These seem to have higher impacts on our Northwest weather, but unfortunately are extremely difficult to forecast very far in advance.  Having said all this though, I suspect that the pattern of this past summer was providing as least some clue as to what the upcoming months will bring.  Since the overall theme seems to be extremely similar to last year, it is conceivable to believe that the winter weather this year will also have a lot of similarities, at least for the early part of the season.  The one caveat are temperatures, which is largely dependent on what the Arctic Oscillation does.  While there are no indications either way at this time, I should point out that we are way overdue for a cold, Arctic-like winter... Just saying.   

So in conclusion, I expect to see overall precipitation come in near to above normal.  As for snowfall, it could come early and may also have the potential to be above normal in the mountains, but below normal in the valley areas around and south of I-90.  If however more Arctic air manages to invade the Northwest, the valley snowfall may also come in above normal.  Due to all the uncertainly, I will likely issue another update around mid December once the winter patterns begin to reveal themselves!                

2018 Spring & Summer Outlook * Issued March 10, 2018

After a very strange and fickle winter around the Inland Northwest, everyone is wondering if the spring and summer months will bring more of the same.  The short answer is probably not.  As I mentioned in my updated Winter Forecast issued last December, we saw a last-minute change in the pattern which was generated by an active Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) which resulted in a strong,  resilient blocking ridge of high pressure along the West Coast.  This phenomenon totally negated the typically colder Northwest patterns associated with an ongoing La Nina episode in the Equatorial Pacific.  Even so, we still managed to see above normal snowfall totals in the northern counties, and the mountains as of this summary are just loaded with snow as well!

The spring and summer seasons should be a bit more stable as the patterns associated with the MJO are not typically a factor here in the northern hemisphere summer.  In addition, the current La Nina pattern continues to wane and should be gone by late spring.  With these two phenomenon's out of the picture, the wild swings we saw this past winter should decrease.  Beyond mid April, there are really no strong indicators either way on an abnormally wet/dry or hot/cold spring and summer ahead.  For a number of reasons, I suspect that the spring months (while active) will probably not be near as wet as what we experienced last season.  On the flip side, I don't expect the summer to be as dry, for as long of a period as what we saw last year either.  In general, expect rather average conditions in both temperature and precipitation going into the early fall months.   I will post another update in early summer If I see any significant changes develop in the overall global patterns.            

2017-18 UPDATED Winter Outlook * Issued December 12, 2017

Summary 

Another unexpected weather phenomenon may lead to lower snowfall totals than what was originally forecast for the Inland Northwest...

Every winter, there seems to be some unexpected development in the patterns, and this winter is no exception!  As we went into the fall months, it appeared that the La Nina pattern (colder waters in the Equatorial Pacific) was right on track to give us a wet, cold winter.  Now however, we have another phenomenon that has complicated things, and has severely interfered with the onset of La Nina.  It's called the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which also takes place in the tropical Pacific.  This pattern is impossible to forecast and when it does develop, it happens quickly.  This may have been brought on by the recent high solar activity but whatever the reason, this pattern typically results in large blocking high pressure ridges along the West Coast.  These patterns don't typically last more than two or three weeks at a time, but they have been known in some instances to repeat themselves.  We saw a similar pattern in 2011 when after a snowy November, we saw little snow in December.  That winter of 2011-12 did end up with snowfall totals just a tad above normal, so there is hope.  Obviously, every day of high pressure is a day without snowfall, and over time that could put a significant dent in our snowpack potential.  There will be winter storms this season, but how often they are interrupted by this Madden-Julian Oscillation remains to be seen.  January will tell the story... If we see another significant blocking ridge, then all bets are off on the potential for above normal snowfall in our area this winter!

Bbefore we get to the winter outlook, let's chat a little about our summer pattern which did not exactly go  according to plan.  For those that read my summer forecast earlier this year, you at least had knowledge that the seemingly never-ending spring rains would eventually come to an end, and boy did they ever!  To be quite truthful, I was not expecting such an abrupt end to the precipitation, and I was certainly not anticipating such a long, hot dry spell.  That being said, it did indeed dry out and warm up as forecast, it was just a bit on the extreme side.  It seems the cause for this sudden change was the stronger than normal influence of the semi-permanent summer high pressure ridge.  That ridge typically resides over the Four-Corners region of the Southwest but this season, the ridge seemed to have lost its way, and made frequent surges into the Northern Rockies.  This pattern rapidly cut off any Pacific moisture, and pumped up copious amounts of heat from the Desert Southwest.   The culprit for this stronger than average ridge was likely the result of a slight warming of the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) located in the waters of the Equatorial Pacific.      

At least for now, it seems that those SSTs have cooled down closer to normal levels, but the outlook is a bit uncertain as to what will happen through the winter months.  A change in either direction could have significant  impacts on our winter weather, but more on that in just a bit... 

Now, SSTs are not the only thing that I follow when trying to formulate a guess as to what the upcoming winter may bring.  For those that follow winter forecasts on a regular basis, you know that I closely follow the habits of our local Red squirrels.  Now of course, I do utilize other scientific resources, but it is surprising how accurate these little furry beasts seem to be!  Having said that, it's been hard to ignore the fact that these critters started packing pine cones off to their secret hiding places a bit earlier than usual this year.

Of particular interest is the continued storm activity in the Eastern Pacific.  While we here in the Pacific Northwest were basking in hot, sunny, rather benign weather, the Gulf of Alaska "storm factory" has been very busy!  The only thing that protected us from getting ANY of that storm activity this summer was the unusual strength and longevity of the Four-Corners ridge.  Once the seasonal summer ridge deflates, our protection will be gone, and the storm door will be wide open into the Pacific Northwest.    

The wildcard for the upcoming winter season is the influence of Arctic air. This will (at least in part) hinge on what the water temperatures do in the Equatorial Pacific in November and December.  Most statistical models are leaning toward normal, to slightly cooler than normal SSTs.  A few are hinting at slightly warmer conditions.  There are of course other factors that come into play such as Arctic Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation, all of which play a role in our winter patterns.    

In short, I suspect moisture will be abundant this winter while temperatures average a bit on the cooler side of normal.  Arctic air masses will also make a run at us from time to time, but how severe they will be remains to be seen. 

2017 Spring & Summer Outlook * Issued March 28, 2017

Summary 

Our rather wet spring should gradually give way to a somewhat drier pattern as we approach the summer months.  Both precipitation and temperatures should then remain close to seasonal normals going into early fall.  

Detailed Synopsis 

Long range weather models continue to advertise that sea surface temperatures (SST's) will trend over to neutral conditions in the months ahead which should result in some drier weather going into the late spring and early summer months.  In the meantime, a semi-permanent ridge of high pressure to our south has, and will continue to force both the sub-tropical and Polar storm tracks to remain close to the Northwest.  That combined with the lingering effects of the recent La Nina pattern in the Equatorial Pacific will keep our weather quite active with above normal precipitation continuing through much of the early spring period, and perhaps beyond.  As time progresses, that same ridge of high pressure to our south should gradually build north and push the more active weather into Canada.  As such, precipitation should begin to wane going into the summer months and temperatures will warm as a result.  I do expect thunderstorms to be more numerous this season compared to last year due to the more active pattern.  In short, we should enjoy a normal summer pattern with lots of hot, dry weather which at times will be interrupted with cooler periods accompanied by showers and thunderstorms.      

UPDATED 2016-17 Winter Outlook *  Issued December 16, 2016

Summary 

The latest model updates as of mid December reveal that the La Nina pattern in the equatorial Pacific is still on track to persist through much of winter; however, an unprecedented anomaly in October has led to a more uncertain snowfall forecast for the season.  

Detailed Synopsis 

I have to admit that I thought that we would have seen a lot more snow on the ground by now, especially up in the snow belt regions north of the Spokane basin.  So what happened??  (I'm so glad you asked!!)  Well, in October you might remember that we experienced an unusually strong Pacific storm track over the Northwest which resulted in all-time record rainfall.  This was a result of persistent blocking high pressure ridges to our south and east.   This was also a huge game changer in that this pattern flooded the entire northern tier of the country with a ton of mild Pacific air, which took all of October and November to recover from!  As a result, it seems that the snow producing weeks of winter are running a bit behind schedule. 

As it turns out, two parts of my original Winter Forecast have already come to fruition...  We have certainly experienced well above normal precipitation (just not in the form of much snow yet) and we have already suffered through more Arctic air than all of last year, and I'm certain there will be more of that to come!  

It goes without saying that winter is just getting started, so there is still plenty of time to build those snow packs.  However, in light of us losing some productive snow weeks (from Thanksgiving past mid December) snowfall totals for the season may not be quite as heavy as what I originally thought.  Even so, La Nina effects here in the Northwest don't really start ramping-up until late December and early January, which can then persist well into March.  As such, I still expect snowfall totals to come in at, or above normal in many areas before winter is all said and done!     

2016-17 Winter Outlook * Issued August 17, 2016

Summary 

The developing changes I talked about earlier this year concerning the Sea Surface Temperatures in both the Equatorial and Eastern Pacific have already led to changes in the global weather patterns.  As such, the chances of a good, old fashioned Northwest winter this season are the best that I have seen in quite some time!  

Detailed Synopsis 

The signs are already in the air... I have already seen some of the queen yellow jackets looking for shelter, and the "stink" bugs are out & about around a month earlier than usual as well.  Now of course all these nasty pests have to survive my two cans of Raid (one in each hand) before they can safely make it to shelter, and I'm happy to report that a few of them will not have to worry about surviving the winter if you know what I mean.  The Robins and the Hummingbirds also seem to be exiting early, and my favorite (our local Red squirrels) have  come out of their sloth-like summer behavior earlier than usual as well...  They have already started cutting (the particularly heavy abundance) of pine cones off of our area Evergreens and onto our noggins.  Somehow, someway, Mother Nature knows what's ahead, and I for one have learned to pay attention to the signs, especially when some of them are hitting me on the head!  Of course, there are plenty of weather pattern signals out there as well, a few of which have my complete attention this year!    

For those that have been following my "weather guessing adventures" throughout the year, it should have come as no surprise that we have experienced a summer with much less heat than what we suffered through the past couple of seasons.  More importantly, I also shared that I thought that this would be a calmer fire season this year which has indeed been the case, at least so far.  The significance of all this actually coming to fruition is important as all the pieces of the puzzle seem to be aligning for what could be a very active winter ahead!    

The first piece of the puzzle involves the rapid demise of the warm El Nino event from last winter.  That is now being replaced by his nagging sister, La Nina, with an expected weak cooling of the equatorial Pacific through the upcoming fall and winter.  In many cases, any degree of La Nina results in a colder, snowier winter for the Inland Northwest; however, there have been a few La Nina winters this past decade which seemed to have little influence on our local weather.  In fact, we actually saw milder than normal winters during the past two episodes of La Nina.  The reason for the mild conditions was that we had an enormous pool of unusually warm water lurking off the West coast.  That pool extended from the Baja of California all the way up into the southern Gulf of Alaska.  Stagnant high pressure over the eastern Pacific aggravated the situation by not allowing much mixing of that water and as such, the pool continued to warm and intensify.  But as of this summer, that piece of the puzzle is history as the waters have cooled, and that pool of warm water has dissipated.  Finally, the last piece of the puzzle revolves around lower than normal sunspot activity the past few months, which is expected to continue for the remainder of the year. 

So in short, expect snowfall totals to come in above (if not much above) normal, and temperatures should average below normal with an above average chance of significant Arctic air intrusions this season.  Not for nothing, but the signs don't seem to get much clearer than this.  Having said that though, I have to ask is there anything that is totally clear concerning Mother Nature?  The correct answer is NO, and the wildcard in this case will hinge on whether or not the La Nina actually develops, and how strong it becomes.   I'll have another update in December if something in the overall pattern changes between now and then, but in the meantime, I for one will be taking advantage of the nice late-summer/early fall weather to prepare for a real old-fashioned Northwest winter this season, just in case.  As I advised one of my local farmer buddies, if they make snowshoes for cattle, you better stock up!  

2016 Summer Outlook * Issued April 18, 2016

Summary 

Big changes are beginning to take shape out in the Pacific Ocean which will lead to some very interesting weather patterns for the remainder of 2016!  In short, our summer should be cooler with the potential for wetter conditions at times as well.    

Detailed Synopsis 

I suspect that many of you are feeling a bit of déjà vu due to another massive high pressure ridge which has once again established itself off the West Coast.  This has already resulted on some early record heat, and some unusually long periods of dry weather for early spring standards, very similar to what we experienced the past two seasons.  BUT there are some significant changes evolving in the Pacific which will likely lead to some different weather patterns heading through the rest of 2016!

The first major transition that is occurring is the rapid weakening of El Nino, which was the intense warming of the Equatorial Pacific.  In fact, the current weather patterns being experienced as of this summary (strong blocking high pressure in the West again) are the lingering effects of this near record event.  Many long-range weather models are in very good agreement that this current El Nino will continue to fade away in the months ahead, with sea surface temperatures returning to near normal as we move into the later spring and summer months.    

The second, and much more significant change that has been developing is the demise of the huge pool of warm water which has been plaguing the Eastern Pacific from Mexico to the Gulf of Alaska for almost 3 years!  Scientists have affectionately named this phenomenon The Blob, with some speculating that this is the result of PDO, (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) a slow cyclical warming and cooling of the Eastern Pacific.  I for one have suspected that PDO has been a contributing factor to our lighter than normal winters since 2010, especially with events like "The Blob" which has been felt around the globe with devastating effects to  both weather patterns and marine life.  As I shared with you last summer, this  phenomenon would likely lead to above average temperatures for our 2015/16 winter, but also indicated that precipitation forecasts were much more uncertain.  Well as it turned out, we ended up experiencing a lot of moisture here in the Pacific Northwest, all this despite the fact that a near record El Nino should have resulted in just the opposite!  

So, what does this all mean for the summer of 2016 you ask?  Well for starters, I would be very surprised to see a repeat of the type of heat that we experienced the past two summers,  but instead would expect normal, or even slightly below normal temperatures around the Inland Northwest.  In addition, precipitation should be close to, if not slightly above average going into the second half of the year.  

So in general, expect a pleasant summer temperature-wise, with the potential for some wetter conditions as the massive, long-lasting high pressure ridges begin to fade along with the pools of warm Pacific ocean waters.  Oh and by the way, it might be wise to stock up on the firewood this summer while you can, because I am already seeing some early indicators of a heavy winter ahead... Just saying!  Of course I'll have much more on that in my Winter Outlook, which I expect to issue sometime in September.               

UPDATED 2015-16 Winter Outlook * Issued December 19, 2015

Summary

Expect near normal precipitation (snowfall) and a higher risk of colder than normal temperatures.  

Detailed Synopsis

If you think it has been a hot summer, you're right!  According to the National Weather Service, overall temperatures came in well above normal in many Northwest cities and it looks like that "warmer" trend will continue into early fall.  What is interesting about our recent spring and summer patterns is how persistent those patterns have been.  Historically, similar patterns have been followed by a rather intense winter throughout the northern tier states, but there were also changes in the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions through mid season.      

This year, fair agreement exists that the ENSO status will remain neutral, with near normal sea surface temperatures continuing in the Equatorial Pacific right through the ENTIRE winter season.  So, with neither an El Nino or La Nina, one would expect "normal" winter weather with no strong signs either way pointing toward a mild or severe winter.  However, given the strong global patterns of this past summer, and the fact that they all seem to be in normal sync, I would not be surprised to see average temperatures come in below normal when it is all said and done.  In addition, I think there is a higher than normal risk of Arctic weather seeping south of the Canadian border from time to time, but again that will all depend on the Arctic Oscillation (AO) which is extremely difficult to forecast in advance.  The later half of the past two winter seasons were plagued with blocking high pressure which resulted in mild winter conditions.  That was all directly related to Arctic Oscillation which in those cases, sent all the Arctic cold east of the Divide.  So while local experts lean heavily on El Nino's and La Nina's for making long-range forecasts, AO impacts cannot be ignored.  With that said, prepare for a near normal winter season, but also be ready for the potential of some Arctic cold as well. 

2013 Spring & Summer Outlook * Issued March 20, 2013

Summary

UPDATED 2012-13 Winter Outlook * Issued December 9, 2012

The winter patterns are finally beginning to evolve which is giving us a better indication of what to expect for the rest of the season... As I originally suspected back in September, it appears that the weather will continue to be on the wetter side of normal!

     In fact, rainfall in October and November came in well above normal, and we even saw a couple of record wet 24/hr periods during November.  The long-range models were indicating drier than normal conditions, but in my Sept outlook, I was suspicious of that forecast due to the recent summer and early fall patterns.  In addition, we had poor model consistency as to what the developing El Nino was going to do, which has also resolved itself in the past 45 days!

     And on the subject of El Nino, it unexpectedly dissipated months ahead of schedule which now leaves the Equatorial Pacific in a neutral temperature pattern.  This latest development has verified well with the recent trend of stormy weather here in the Pacific Northwest and is typically a good pattern for a moist winter season.  Temperature is still the big wildcard and will all depend on what the Polar Vortex does in the coming weeks.  Barring any weird sun spot activity, I think the Polar Vortex will eventually slip south resulting in cooling temperatures here in the Inland Northwest.  As such, total snowfall accumulations for the season should reach normal levels, if not higher.  The active storm tracks (both Polar and sub-tropical) will result in wild swings in the patterns going from cold and snow, to mild and rain, but even so, snowfall should exceed last years totals, even in the Spokane/Cd' A basin.  It's also interesting to note that historically, this type of pattern has led to Arctic outbreaks which plunged the Inland Northwest into sub-zero readings!  That again will all depend on the movement of the Polar Vortex during the upcoming winter months.     

                                                     Comparison Data on the top 26 (up to 1.44”) driest Decembers last 120 years

Only 5 of those winters produced heavier than normal snowfall for the season.  Four out of those 5 winters experienced heavier than normal November snowfall (not the case this year though) which were: 1985-86/2000-01/1997-98/1978-79.  The winter of 1898-99 did not have heavy snowfall in November but still managed 56.4” for the season.  Only 4 winters produced near normal snowfall.  Two winters had heavier than normal November snowfall; 1921-22 & 1959-60.  The other two had light Nov snowfall; 1956-57 & 1954-55.  I did not compare AO or ESNO status for any of those years.  All the rest of the winters were fairly light  averaging around 30-40” or less.